Victoria’s changing climate

Victoria’s Climate Science Report 2024

Victoria’s Climate Science Report 2024 (VCSR24) summarises the best available scientific evidence on the climate for our state. The report builds on the earlier Victoria's Climate Science Report 2019 (VCSR19), which remains a relevant component of our scientific evidence base.

VCSR24 and supporting resources can be used by Victorian decision-makers across businesses, the community and government, to improve research, risk assessments and planning for climate resilience.

VCSR24 delivers important messages about Victoria’s changing and future climate:

Victoria’s climate has continued to warm since the 19th century, becoming drier in recent decades and experiencing more frequent and intense climate hazards.
Victoria will experience a warmer future climate with further increases to average temperatures and more frequent and intense hot days.
Victoria is likely to continue to become drier, especially in winter and throughout the cool season (April – October), while the intensity of short duration extreme rainfall events is projected to increase.
High-impact climate hazards that affect Victoria, including floods, heatwaves, drought, bushfires and sea-level rise, are also changing and are projected to exacerbate under a warming climate.

VCSR24 highlights that we can minimise the impacts of climate change if global emissions achieve a low emissions scenario. This shows that it is not too late to act, and that further action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions is crucial to reducing the impacts of climate change. For information on how we are reducing emissions as well as adapting to Victoria's changing climate, see Victoria’s Climate Change Strategy and Our commitment to adapt to climate change.

The figure below summarises projected changes for Victoria’s climate under two global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (low and high).

Statements on projected impacts on climate variables under both low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. The table indicates less impact under a low-emissions scenario

* Downscaled CMIP6 projections, based on plausible low (SSP1-2.6) and high (SSP3-7.0) emissions scenarios. Average temperatures are given as the median followed by the range. Hot days are defined as days with daily maximum temperature exceeding the 99th percentile. Heatwave days are defined as 3 consecutive days with daily average temperature exceeding the 95th percentile. A dry month is defined as a month below the 10th percentile in average monthly precipitation.
** CMIP6 projections, based on low (SSP1-2.6), high (SSP3-7.0) and very high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenarios. Sea level is lowest and highest as taken from the Melbourne, Warrnambool or Gabo Island locations from projected changes (17–83% uncertainty range). Very high emissions scenario provided as additional CMIP6 sea-level rise projections study available for Victoria.
Source: VCSR24, p. 7

Victoria’s climate is already changing

Evidence that Earth’s climate is changing has strengthened since the publication of VCSR19.

Global atmospheric and ocean temperatures are increasing, sea levels are rising, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and intense, and the global water cycle is changing. These changes have predominantly occurred in response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, primarily caused by human activities.

Victoria’s climate has warmed since the 19th century, becoming drier in recent decades and experiencing more frequent and intense climate hazards.

The figure below summarises some observed changes in Victoria’s climate to 2024.

Victoria's climate has already changed - observed as of 2024

Observed changes in Victoria's climate, with statements on temperature, heatwaves, very hot days, bushfire risk, rainfall, and snow levels, each paired with icons: a thermometer, gauge, sun, fire, raincloud, water droplet, and snow-capped mountains. The overall message highlights that Victoria's climate has already undergone noticeable changes.

* A heatwave is defined as at least 3 consecutive days above the 95th percentile of daily average temperatures
** Very hot days are defined as days with daily maximum temperature exceeding the 99.9th percentile.
Source: VCSR24, p. 5

Victoria’s climate is shaped by large-scale climate drivers, weather systems and seasonal influences. As concentrations of greenhouse gases continue to increase in the atmosphere, further shifts in the scale and timing of climate drivers and weather systems are likely to occur, with flow-on effects for Victoria’s climate.

Observations of Victoria’s climate show it continues to change, with increasing temperatures, hotter extremes and changing rainfall patterns.

Chapter 1 of VCSR24 provides more information on the Earth’s changing climate and greenhouse gas emissions.

Observed changes in temperature and hot days

Victoria has experienced an overall warming of 1.4 °C since the pre-industrial baseline period of 1850-1900, and 1.2 °C since 1910.

The figures below shows the observed annual average temperature over Victoria from 1910 to 2023.

Observed increases in Victoria's annual mean temperature

Graph showing increasing annual mean temperature in Victoria from 1910 to 2023 — **Observed annual mean temperature over Victoria from 1910 to 2023 relative to the 1910–1930 baseline period.** The dashed line indicates the 1850–1900 average temperature and shows the additional 0.2 °C of warming between 1850–1900 and 1910. The smooth blue line shows the long-term trend, and the brown-coloured horizontal line shows the amount of warming for the most recent decade (2011–2020).
*Source: VCSR24 p.22, Figure 7(a)*

A series of vertical-coloured bars shows the progressive heating of Victoria using blue and red shading — **Observed annual mean temperature over Victoria from 1910 to 2023 relative to the 1910–1930 baseline period.** The dashed line indicates the 1850–1900 average temperature and shows the additional 0.2 °C of warming between 1850–1900 and 1910. The smooth blue line shows the long-term trend, and the brown-coloured horizontal line shows the amount of warming for the most recent decade (2011–2020).
*Source: VCSR24 p.22, Figure 7(a)*

The number of hot days and very hot days continues to increase across Victoria, especially inland. The more extreme hot days have experienced the largest increases, especially over the past decade.

The figure below shows recent changes in the average number of hot days and very hot days.

Observed increase in hot and very hot days

Two maps of Victoria with green and blue circles giving temperatures for 1986–2005 and 2003–2022 respectively, showing an increase in hot days per year and very hot days per decade — **Recent changes in the average number of days above the 99th percentile (hot days) and 99.9th percentile (very hot days) maximum daily temperature threshold.** Data are shown for the 7 observational stations in Victoria with high-quality daily temperature datasets (ACORN-SAT, 2023). The historical values of these thresholds (1986–2005) are listed along with the average number of days (per year for hot days and per decade for very hot days) over the 1986–2005 historical baseline and the most recent 20 years (2003–22).
*Source: VCRS24, p.24, Figure 8. Adapted from CSIRO, 2024.*

Chapter 2 of VCSR24 provides more information on Victoria’s changing climate.

Observed changes in rainfall, frost and snow

The research shows that Victoria’s observed rainfall trends have been at least partly driven by human-caused climate change. These trends include:

Victoria’s average rainfall has decreased over the past half-century in all seasons except summer. Over the last 30 years, Victoria’s cool season (April–October) rainfall has declined by more than 10% compared to the 1961–90 period. Extreme rainfall events are generally becoming more intense.
These rainfall changes have not been constant across the state, with larger declines experienced in the alpine region than elsewhere.

Snow depth and cover have decreased in Victorian alpine regions since the late 1950s, and the frequency of frost-risk days has generally decreased in recent decades.

The figure below shows observed decline in cool season rainfall over Victoria from 1910 to 2023.

Observed declines in Victoria’s cool season rainfall

Blue vertical bars with a dark blue trend line depicting declining cool-season rainfall in Victoria from 1910 to 2023 — **Observed total cool season (April to October) rainfall over Victoria from 1910 to 2023.** Data from the Australian Gridded Climate Dataset (AGCD). Rainfall is shown in millimetres (mm), with each bar representing the total rainfall per year and the smooth blue line representing the long-term trend. The maroon horizontal line represents a recent 20-year average (2004–2023).
*Source: VCSR24, p25, Figure 9. Adapted from CSIRO, 2024.*

Chapter 2 of VCSR24 provides more information on Victoria’s changing climate.

Updated climate projections for Victoria

While Victoria's future climate will depend on the global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios, Victoria will:

experience a warmer future climate with further increases to average temperatures and more frequent and intense hot days.
likely continue to become drier, especially in winter and throughout the cool season (April – October), while the intensity of short duration extreme rainfall events is projected to increase.

VCSR24 includes climate projections based on the latest generation of global climate models, from the sixth phase of the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). VCSR24 projections are presented for two-time horizons: 2050 and 2090.

Under the internationally recognised new framework for emissions scenarios, ‘Shared Socio-economic Pathways’ (SSPs), two emission scenarios are applied, the:

low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) and
high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0).

For climate hazards, other emissions scenarios and climate modelling studies have been analysed where relevant and available. The mean sea-level rise projections go to 2120 and include additional emissions scenarios.

VCSR24 projections add to – rather than replace – Victoria’s existing suite of projections developed for VCSR19. In keeping with the best climate science practically available at the time, VCSR19 projections used the fifth generation of global climate models (CMIP5). VCSR19 includes ‘medium’ and ‘very high’ emissions scenarios – noting the latter was referred to as ‘high’ under CMIP5. These projections remain a relevant component of our evidence base. In keeping with CMIP5, VCSR19 projections used the ‘Representative Concentration Pathways’ (RCPs) framework for emissions scenarios.

For more information see Factsheet 1 - How do the Victorian Climate Projections 2024 compare with previous climate projections for Victoria? (PDF, 319.3 KB)

The figure below summarises greenhouse gas emissions frameworks and can be used to compare SSPs used in VCSR24, to RCPs used in VCSR19.

Five columns representing the five Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and comparison with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs): SSP1-1.9 (no RCP equivalent), SSP1-2.6 (RCP2.6), SSP2-4.5 (RCP4.5), SSP3-7.0 (no RCP equivalent), and SSP5-8.5 (RCP8.5) — **An overview of the 5 SSPs used in modelling the global climate.** The socio-economic narrative describes the broad socio-economic trends (such as population and economic growth, technological advances, patterns of consumption, inequality, etc.) that could shape future society and influence future emissions and adaptive capacity.
*Source: VCSR24, p31, Figure 12. Adapted from National Environmental Science Program’s Climate Systems Hub, 2024, under CC BY 4.0.*

Victoria’s climate will continue to warm with more hot days

Victoria is projected to experience a warmer future climate with increasing average temperatures, more frequent and intense hot days, and longer and more frequent heatwaves.

The graph below shows observed and projected future annual average temperatures for Victoria under two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. It also shows the close alignment of historical modelling with observed temperature.

A warmer Victoria by 2100

Graph showing the increase in observed temperatures in Victoria from 1850 to 2020, closely aligning with modelled historical temperature trend. Projected changes to 2100 are modelled under two scenarios: orange shading represents a high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0), showing a steeper rise in temperature, while green shading represents a low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), showing a more gradual increase then levelling out — **Observed and modelled historic and modelled future changes in average annual temperature over Victoria relative to the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900).** The light grey shading shows the modelled historical temperature range from CMIP6 global climate models, and the historical observed temperature is shown by the thin black line (dark grey band indicates the observed uncertainty).
*Source: VCSR24, p.34, Figure 14.*

Compared to a baseline climate for the period between 1986-2005, Victoria is expected to experience average warming of 1.5 °C by 2050 and 3.1 °C by 2090 under a high emissions scenario. Under a low emissions scenario Victoria is expected to warm by 1.1 °C by 2050, with little subsequent warming.

A warming climate also means that hot days will become hotter and more frequent. The number of hot days is expected to increase under all emissions scenarios and time horizons.

The figure below shows projected hot days across Victoria for 2050 and 2090 under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario.

Projected hot days per year

A map of Victoria shows projected increase in the number of hot days under a high emissions scenario at around 2050 and an even greater projected increase around 2090. — **A comparison at key locations of the range of projected hot days per year under a high emissions scenario in the 2050s and 2090s compared to 3-4 days a year (relative to the 1986–2005 baseline).**
*Source: VCSR24, p.36, Figure 16. Adapted from CSIRO, 2024.*

Chapter 3 of VCSR24 provides more information on the updated climate projections for Victoria.

Victoria is likely to get drier with more extreme heavy rainfall days

Victoria is likely to continue to become drier on average, especially in winter and throughout the cool season. This long-term drying trend will be overlaid by large natural year-to-year and decade-to-decade variability, and cooler and wetter periods will still occur in the future.

Dry periods are projected to be drier and hotter, while extreme rainfall events are projected to become more intense. Extreme rainfall is one of the main drivers of flood events.

Understanding and projecting regional rainfall changes over Victoria remains an ongoing scientific challenge. Despite this there is medium to high confidence that Victoria is expected to continue to become drier during the cool season (April to October), especially under the high emissions scenario.

The graph below shows projected change (%) in seasonal rainfall for 2050 for low and high emissions scenarios.

Projected changes in Victorian mean seasonal rainfall for 2050

Box plot showing projected seasonal rainfall changes, with clearest declines in spring — Projected mean seasonal rainfall change (%) over Victoria for 2050 (2040–2059) for the low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6) and the high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0) compared to the 1986–2005 period. The green boxes represent the low emissions scenario, and the orange boxes represent the high emissions scenario.
*Source: VCSR24, p.38, Figure 18.*

The darker-coloured segments of each bar represent the 10th to 90th percentile range of projections from all global climate models, while the lighter ‘extension’ segments of each bar represent the 10th to 90th percentile range projected by the regional climate models. The crosses on each box show individual models outside the 10th to 90th percentile range, and the white circle in each bar represents the median of all the regional climate models. Source: Adapted from CSIRO, 2024.

Chapter 3 of VCSR24 provides more information on the updated climate projections for Victoria.

Understanding climate hazards in Victoria

Climate hazards that affect Victoria, including floods, heatwaves, drought, bushfires and sea-level rise, are changing under a warming climate and are projected to exacerbate under a warming climate.

The figure below shows observed and projected changes in climate hazards affecting Victoria.

Climate hazards in Victoria are changing under a warming climate

Diagram showing changes in climate hazards in Victoria under a warming climate, with statements on shifting risks related to heatwaves, bushfires, floods, sea-level rise, and drought. Each hazard is paired with an icon: sun, water droplet, fire, yardstick, and drooping plant. The overall message emphasizes increasing severity of these impacts in Victoria. — Findings based on peer-reviewed literature. *Source: VCSR24, p.8.*

Floods

Floods are a natural part of Victoria’s environment. While they are generally a result of intense rainfall, their behaviour and magnitude are influenced by a range of factors.

Over the past 70 years, Victoria has experienced:
- extreme flood events at different locations at least 10 times
- an increase of approximately 3% per decade in the magnitude of large floods due to increasing rainfall intensities
- a decrease of between 5% and 13% per decade in the magnitude of smaller floods.
Smaller and more frequent floods that contribute to the health of our floodplain and riverine environment have been decreasing in magnitude, despite increases in extreme rainfall.
The historical trend of small floods becoming smaller and large floods becoming larger is projected to continue at a greater rate in future, depending on the emissions pathway followed.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at a medium to high rate, flood risk in Victoria is likely to double by the end of the century. That is, a flood with a historical 1-in-100 chance of being exceeded now may occur twice as often by 2100.
The precise rate at which floods will increase is subject to uncertainty.

The maps below show projected changes in the magnitude of small and large floods in Victoria by 2100 compared with historical conditions, for medium and very high emissions scenarios.

Projected change in the magnitude of floods in Victoria by 2100

Maps of Victoria show projected changes in the magnitude of small floods (left), and large floods (right) under moderate (top) and very high (bottom) emissions scenarios. A flood with a 1-in-100 chance of being exceeded now might be twice as likely to occur by 2100 under both emissions scenarios, especially to the north-west of Victoria — **Projected change in the magnitude of floods in Victoria by 2100 for both medium (RCP4.5 – top maps) and very high (RCP8.5 – bottom maps) emissions scenarios compared with historic conditions.** Blue colours represent increasing magnitude, and red colours represent decreasing magnitude. AEP = annual exceedance probability.
*Source: VCSR24, p.52, Figure 26. Credit: Rory Nathan and Conrad Wasko for VCSR24.*

Chapter 4 of VCSR24 provides more information on flood hazards in Victoria.

Heatwaves and extreme heat

Heatwaves are prolonged periods of excessive heat that generally last for at least 3 or more successive days.

Since the 1950s:

the intensity, frequency and duration of heatwaves in Victoria have increased, and the typical Victorian heatwave season is now longer and starts earlier
observed heatwave trends have increased at a faster rate over the past few decades.

Future changes in Victorian heatwaves will be driven by increasing global temperatures. More warming will result in longer, more intense and more frequent heatwaves.

There is some evidence that expansion of Melbourne’s urban areas could result in higher night-time temperatures during heatwave events due to excess heat accumulated during the day.

The new high-resolution downscaled projections indicate that the frequency of heatwave days in Victoria is likely to increase from the historical average of 20 days a year (1986–2005). By 2090, under a high emissions scenario, the frequency of heatwave days could more than triple. Victoria could experience around 60 heatwave days rather than the 20 experienced historically.

The graph below shows projected increasing frequency of annual heatwave days per year for 2040-2059 and 2080-2099 compared to 1986-2005, under low and high emissions scenarios.

Increases in frequency of heatwave days based on indicative projections

Box plot showing increased annual heatwave days in 2050 and 2090 under low (green) and high (orange) emissions — **Indicative projected mean annual heatwave day frequency (heatwave days/year) for 2040–2059 (2050) and 2080–2099 (2090) compared to 1986–2005 using NARCliM2.0 data for Victoria.** The dark blue box represents the historical period (1986–2005), the green boxes represent the low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), and the orange boxes represent the high emissions scenario (SSP3-7.0). The height of each box denotes the 25th to 75th range, while the whiskers indicate the full range of data.
*Source: VCSR24, p.59 , Figure 30. From CSIRO, 2024.*

Chapter 4 of VCSR24 provides more information on heatwave and extreme heat hazards in Victoria.

Drought

Drought is a pervasive part of the Victorian landscape.

Droughts have become significantly warmer in the 21st century due to human-caused climate change.
A few studies report increases in drought duration and intensity in south-east Australia.
Droughts in Victoria are likely to continue to increase under a warming climate, although the precise nature and extent of the impacts are unclear.
Future droughts will be hotter than past droughts, which can affect compounding heat and drought events.
Future droughts may develop quicker under a thirstier atmosphere.
Some evidence suggests changes to drought characteristics may follow shifts in rainfall distributions.
New high-resolution downscaled projections indicate that there may be an increase in the occurrence of dry months in Victoria in future, with almost a doubling of dry months projected by 2090 under the high emissions scenario relative to 24 dry months experienced during the 1986–2005 period.

Chapter 4 of VCSR24 provides more information on drought hazards in Victoria.

Bushfires

Fire is ancient, complex and inextricably linked to human activities across Australia.

There is strong and robust evidence that climate change affects fire weather.
Observations suggest fire activity is increasing in many fire-prone ecosystems and will continue to do so.
A range of changes in fire regimes, activity and drivers in Victoria have already been observed, including a longer fire season, with more frequent days of significant fire danger.
These changes are likely to escalate with increasing global temperatures.
Low fuel moisture plays an important role in fire ignitions in Victoria, with potential increased ignition risk projected under warmer and drier future climates.
Changes in fire risk will not be the same everywhere and will depend strongly on local fire conditions.
Fire weather and fire activity are projected to increase in many regions of south-east Australia.
Most of the evidence on changes to Victoria’s fire activity focuses on forest and woodland environments, but important changes could also take place in grassland and semi-arid areas.

The table below shows observed and projected changes, and the confidence in the increase or decrease, of fire activity and fire drivers.

Confidence in observed and projected changes related to fire activity and drivers

Assessing projected changes in fire activity shows there is high confidence in a projected increase for forests and low confidence in either an increase or decrease for grasslands — **An assessment of the evidence related to fuel, fuel moisture, fire weather, ignition, fire frequency, area burnt and fire severity in Victoria.** High confidence equates to high agreement and robust evidence. Low confidence equates to low agreement and limited evidence.
*Source: VCSR24, p. 76, Figure 41. Credit: Hamish Clarke, Victoria Reynolds and Tom Fairman for VCSR24.*

Chapter 4 of VCSR24 provides more information on fire hazards in Victoria.

Sea-level rise

Sea-level rise is driven by oceanic and atmospheric influences and more specific mechanisms such as thermal expansion, ocean currents, melting glaciers and ice sheets, and vertical land movement.

Sea-level trends assessed between 1901 and 2018 indicate that globally, the average rate of sea-level rise is accelerating.
Since 1993, the rates of sea-level rise to the north and south-east of Australia have been significantly higher than the global average, whereas rates of sea-level rise along the other coasts of the continent, including Victoria, have been closer to the global average.
Sea levels will continue to rise in the next 100 years under all emissions scenarios. However, following a lower emissions pathway will help to slow the rate of sea-level rise but will not stop or reverse the rising trend.

The images below show projected sea-level rise for 2050 and 2120 across three locations in Victoria compared to 1995-2014 for low, high and very high emissions scenarios.

Sea-level rise projections for Victoria

Graphs and tables of sea-level rise projections to 2050 and 2120 for Melbourne, Warrnambool, and Gabo Island under various emissions scenarios — CMIP6 sea-level rise projections to 2050 and 2120 (medium confidence) for 3 locations in Victoria compared to 1995–2014, based on low (SSP1-2.6), high (SSP3-7.0) and very high (SSP5-8.5) emissions scenarios: Melbourne, Warrnambool, and Gabo Island.
The projections are expressed as a median and 17-83% confidence range (in brackets), relative to the baseline period of 1995–2014.
*Source: VCSR24, p. 85, Figure 46. Credit: McInnes & Zhang, 2024.*

Chapter 4 of VCSR24 provides more information on climate change impacts on hazards in Victoria.

Applying climate science in decision making

Decision makers can draw on different types of climate information depending on their needs.

Observational data can be used to minimise current exposure to climate change, while climate projections can inform medium – and long-term adaptation strategies.

Information on extreme weather events supports the capacity of organisations and communities to cope with severe weather events.

Climate projections are useful tools to gauge the scope and scale of likely future climate change and to illustrate the difference between emissions scenarios. While there are a range of projections indicating that Victoria’s climate will change, it is not possible to determine the exact impacts of climate change at any location or time with certainty. While climate projections are a valuable resource for planning for a changing climate, they can be difficult to use in practice and can never be perfect quantitative measures of the full set of possibilities far into the future.

Chapter 5 of VCSR24 provides more information on applying climate science in decision making. Also see Factsheet 3 - Using the Victorian Climate Projections 2024

Victoria’s Future Climate Tool

Victoria’s future climate projections can be explored using Victoria's Future Climate Tool. The tool can be used to explore future climate projections your local region and export climate data to use in your own spatial tools.

The tool includes Victoria’s 2019 projections and is being updated to include the new climate projections produced for VCSR24.

The updated tool will be ready for controlled access in coming weeks and for public access in early 2025. If you are interested to gain early access to the updated tool, contact us via email at climate.change@deeca.vic.gov.au.

The user guide was developed in collaboration with the Victorian Managed Insurance Authority (VMIA) to support the delivery of VMIA’s climate change risk management service. To learn more about the tool and how it can be used, visit:

Case study

This case study was developed in collaboration with Ambulance Victoria and VMIA to support the delivery of VMIA’s climate change risk management service.

Stress testing for the potential impact of heatwave on Ambulance Victoria (PDF, 3.7 MB)

Victoria's Future Climate Tool demonstration video

Download reports and supporting documents

You can learn more about Victoria’s changing climate through Victoria’s Climate Science Reports and a suite of products to support decision-makers with varying levels of climate literacy.

Under the Climate Change Act 2017 the Victorian Government prepares a report every 5 years, summarising the best available scientific evidence on climate change for our state.

Victoria's Climate Science Report 2024

Victoria’s Climate Science Report 2024 (VCSR24) is the latest report summarising the best available scientific evidence on the climate for our state.

VCSR24 includes climate projections based on the latest generation of global climate models.

These models are from the sixth phase of the World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6).

Victoria's Climate Science Report 2019

VCSR24 builds on the first Victoria's Climate Science Report 2019 (VCSR19), which remains a relevant component of our scientific evidence base.

In keeping with the global-scale climate projections presented in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, VCSR19 used the fifth generation of global climate modelling. This modelling is from the internationally recognised World Climate Research Programme’s Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5).

For more information on how VCSR24 and VCSR19 relate to each other refer to Factsheet 1 - How do the Victorian Climate Projections 2024 compare with previous climate projections for Victoria? (PDF, 319.3 KB)

Victoria’s Climate Projections – Technical reports

Victorian Climate Projections 2024 – Technical Report (PDF, 27.2 MB) features the latest global and climate modelling simulations for Victoria, that describe how Victoria’s climate is likely to respond to global warming.

Updated Sea-Level Projections for Victoria 2024 (PDF, 3.2 MB) provides the latest science relating to sea level from the IPCC’s sixth assessment report and provides new sea level projections for Victoria.

Victorian Climate Projections 2019 – Technical Report (PDF, 36.0 MB) – aimed at scientists presents a comprehensive assessment of Victoria's changing climate using projections and data for medium (RCP4.5) and high (RCP8.5) scenarios of future greenhouse gas emissions. Also available at Victorian Climate Projections 2019

Factsheets

Several factsheets have been developed for Victoria’s new climate projections, providing further information on areas of user interest:

Factsheet 1 - How do the Victorian Climate Projections 2024 compare with previous climate projections for Victoria? (PDF, 319.3 KB) - outlines in more detail how Victoria’s updated projections compare with those produced for the inaugural 2019 report.

Factsheet 2 - What do the Victorian Climate Projections 2024 say about changes in rainfall? (PDF, 355.0 KB) - helps users of Victoria’s updated climate projections understand what they say about changes in rainfall and why they are more uncertain than other climate variables

Factsheet 3 - Using the Victorian Climate Projections 2024 (PDF, 295.6 KB) - documents some of the features of Victorian 2024 projections that can assist users.

Regional summaries

10 Regional summaries have been developed detailing effects of climate change for each of Victoria’s regional partnership areas. New regional summaries based on the VCSR24 projections will be available soon.

Select your region to read a summary of what to expect of your local climate in the future based on the projections for VCSR19.

2019 Regional summaries

Select your region to read a summary of what to expect of your local climate in the future.

Additional resources

These resources provide detailed insights into the steps Victoria is taking to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of climate change.

To learn more about climate action in Victoria see:

Explore the climate drivers shaping Victoria's rainfall patterns through the Climate Dogs animations.

The Victorian Floodplain Management Strategy is helping prepare Victoria for a range of climate conditions by modelling different climate change scenarios as part of flood studies. Flood studies for urban and regional areas are informed by the most recent edition of the Australian Rainfall and Runoff Guidelines.

The Water and Catchments website shows how DEECA ensures Victoria has safe, sustainable and productive water resources to meet our urban, rural, recreational, environmental and cultural needs.

The Economic Impact of Heatwaves on Victoria. (PDF, 441.7 KB) shows the economic effects of heatwaves on Victoria, with regional and sector insights.

Visit DEECA’s Forest Fire Management Victoria website to see how the state is addressing bushfire risks.

Review the latest sea-level rise projections for Victoria in the Updated Sea-Level Projections for Victoria 2024 report.

Contact us

If you would like to get in touch or find out more, email us at climate.change@deeca.vic.gov.au

Page last updated: 02/12/24